No. 1388 Draft Budget for Social Services 2025 Fiscal
The General Account amount of the government’s budget plan for the fiscal 2025 is the biggest in history. And therefore, as an official emphasis is made, the social services expenditure is the biggest. The administration tries to show off its eagerness in the public service sector, saying that the outlay occupies a third of the entire spending. In fact, however, the sum is constrained so that costs for national security and childcare can be prioritized.
ELDERLY ON PENSIONS AND BENEFICIARIES OF SOCIAL PROTECTION SERVICE WILL HAVE HARDER LIVING CONDITIONS
No sufficient public services assured
The total sum for social services counts \38 trillion 277.8 billion, a rise by \558.5 billion (+1.5%), compared with that of the last fiscal.
Its breakdown shows; a natural increase counts \650 billion, a reduction by \130 billion due to the reforms and efficiency improvement (revisions in medication prices, reviews in the high-cost medical expense benefits, and etc.), and an auxiliary sum of \30 billion (a free-of-charge higher education program for households with a multiple number of children has started). Therefore, the balance of the account remains approximately \560 billion, which means that better services cannot be provided as the natural increase is underestimated.
The upper limit for high-cost medical treatments
The government plans to increase spending to assure the premiums of health insurance programs so that it can appropriate money effectively to achieve the ‘Strategy for Children’s Future’, in which \3.6 trillion of sum could be allocated till the 2028 fiscal. Current insurance premiums will not be surged officially, and so, logically speaking, allowances will be reduced in order to secure the financial source.
A targeted source lies in the upper limit of payments of individual patients, which will be surged, who rely on the high-cost medical treatment program, because for this service revisions of relevant laws are unnecessary. Currently there are five classifications in the plan, which will be further categorized to 13 grades. Service users will be requested to pay much more.
Pensions will be diminished
A revised rate for pensions in the 2025 budget will be 1.9% (which was 2.9% in the fiscal 2024); the details say that the price fluctuation rate is set as 2.7% (3.4% in 2024), the nominal wage fluctuation rate is 2.3% (in the same way, 3.3%), and the macro-economy slide adjustment rate is minus 0.4% (0.4%, the same). Thus, that counts 1.9%, a decrease by 0.4% from 2.3%. An actual adjusted rate will be set after the government’s announcement in January on the 2024 price fluctuation rate. However, usually the lower rate is chosen between the prices and wages. That will make 1.9%. This ratio is too low as it does not well respond to the previous wage hikes, though they were appreciated as great. This does not attain the today’s price rises, either. And therefore, the elderly living on pensions will have harder livelihood.
A hike by only \500 for beneficiaries of Life Protection Service
Concerning the Life Protection Service, a special additional allowance has been paid since October 2023, which counts monthly \1,000 per person, and the sum will be raised to \1,500, an additional amount by only \500. From the point of the government’s spending, the figure solely goes to \2 billion. That does not correspond to the price hike, nor reflects the rise in the minimum wage. The policy means to abandon low-income people.
The next target will be the elderly-care insurance
A possible next step will be the poorer services in the elderly care program. Currently, users pay 20% of the real costs for the services, if their annual income exceeds \2.8 million per single-person in a household, and \3.2 million, per married couple. The government is planned to lower the figures, falling to \2 million for a single and \3.2 million per a couple. It will, reportedly, request users to pay for making a Care Plan. Alongside, the government will transfer the services to the local programs in terms of users of the Elderly-Care Program, if they are certified as those categorized in the Care Grade I and II in the national plan.
過去最大の25年度一般会計予算で社会保障費も過去最大と宣伝され、予算全体の3分の1を占めて充実しているように見せる。だが、防衛費と子ども政策の財源確保のため抑制されている。
社会保障充実なし
社会保障の予算額は38兆2778億円、前年度より5585億円(1・5%)増となっている。
内訳は、自然増が6500億円、制度改革・効率化等で1300億円減(薬価改定、高額医療費の見直しなど)、社会保障の充実300億円(高等教育での多子世帯無償化の開始)で、差引約5600億円だが、自然増は値切り、充実はほぼないと言ってよい。
高額療養費上限額
政府は、こども・子育て政策の充実のため、「こども未来戦略」で28年度までに3・6兆円の財源確保を掲げ、そのために医療保険料への上積みを目論む。保険料引上げなしで行うとしており、医療保険料の引上げなしの財源確保は医療給付の削減となる。
狙い撃ちされたのが、法改正の必要のない高額療養費の上限額の引上げだ。5段階の区分が最終的には13段階に拡大され、負担額が大幅に引き上げられる。
年金額はマイナス
年金の予算上の改定率は、1・9%(24年度2・9%)。内訳は、前年の物価変動率2・7%(同3・4%)、名目賃金変動率2・3%(同3・3%)、マクロ経済スライド調整率マイナス0・4%(同マイナス0・4%)で、2・3%から0・4%を引くと1・9%となる。実際の改定率は、1月公表の24年の物価変動率を受けて決定される。しかし、物価変動率と名目賃金変動率で、低い方に合わせるので1・9%だろう。
大幅な賃上げといわれた昨年の賃上げの水準にも達しないし、最近の物価上昇率にも達しない低水準の引上げであり、年金生活者の生活は実質低下する。
生保費に500円
生活保護費は23年10月から特例加算されていた1人月1000円が、1500円に500円引き上げられるだけ。予算上は20億円増に過ぎない。物価高に対応せず、最低賃金の引上げも反映されない棄民政策だ。
狙われる介護保険
今後の課題として、介護保険の利用者負担が2割となる一定以上所得の基準、現行年収単身で280万円・夫婦で320万円を、後期高齢者の単身200万円・夫婦で320万円に引き下げ、ケアプラン作成の有料化や要介護1、2の認定者の保険給付から地域支援事業への移行が言われる。
英訳版↓
No. 1388 Draft Budget for Social Services 2025 Fiscal
The General Account amount of the government’s budget plan for the fiscal 2025 is the biggest in history. And therefore, as an official emphasis is made, the social services expenditure is the biggest. The administration tries to show off its eagerness in the public service sector, saying that the outlay occupies a third of the entire spending. In fact, however, the sum is constrained so that costs for national security and childcare can be prioritized.
ELDERLY ON PENSIONS AND BENEFICIARIES OF SOCIAL PROTECTION SERVICE WILL HAVE HARDER LIVING CONDITIONS
No sufficient public services assured
The total sum for social services counts \38 trillion 277.8 billion, a rise by \558.5 billion (+1.5%), compared with that of the last fiscal.
Its breakdown shows; a natural increase counts \650 billion, a reduction by \130 billion due to the reforms and efficiency improvement (revisions in medication prices, reviews in the high-cost medical expense benefits, and etc.), and an auxiliary sum of \30 billion (a free-of-charge higher education program for households with a multiple number of children has started). Therefore, the balance of the account remains approximately \560 billion, which means that better services cannot be provided as the natural increase is underestimated.
The upper limit for high-cost medical treatments
The government plans to increase spending to assure the premiums of health insurance programs so that it can appropriate money effectively to achieve the ‘Strategy for Children’s Future’, in which \3.6 trillion of sum could be allocated till the 2028 fiscal. Current insurance premiums will not be surged officially, and so, logically speaking, allowances will be reduced in order to secure the financial source.
A targeted source lies in the upper limit of payments of individual patients, which will be surged, who rely on the high-cost medical treatment program, because for this service revisions of relevant laws are unnecessary. Currently there are five classifications in the plan, which will be further categorized to 13 grades. Service users will be requested to pay much more.
Pensions will be diminished
A revised rate for pensions in the 2025 budget will be 1.9% (which was 2.9% in the fiscal 2024); the details say that the price fluctuation rate is set as 2.7% (3.4% in 2024), the nominal wage fluctuation rate is 2.3% (in the same way, 3.3%), and the macro-economy slide adjustment rate is minus 0.4% (0.4%, the same). Thus, that counts 1.9%, a decrease by 0.4% from 2.3%. An actual adjusted rate will be set after the government’s announcement in January on the 2024 price fluctuation rate. However, usually the lower rate is chosen between the prices and wages. That will make 1.9%. This ratio is too low as it does not well respond to the previous wage hikes, though they were appreciated as great. This does not attain the today’s price rises, either. And therefore, the elderly living on pensions will have harder livelihood.
A hike by only \500 for beneficiaries of Life Protection Service
Concerning the Life Protection Service, a special additional allowance has been paid since October 2023, which counts monthly \1,000 per person, and the sum will be raised to \1,500, an additional amount by only \500. From the point of the government’s spending, the figure solely goes to \2 billion. That does not correspond to the price hike, nor reflects the rise in the minimum wage. The policy means to abandon low-income people.
The next target will be the elderly-care insurance
A possible next step will be the poorer services in the elderly care program. Currently, users pay 20% of the real costs for the services, if their annual income exceeds \2.8 million per single-person in a household, and \3.2 million, per married couple. The government is planned to lower the figures, falling to \2 million for a single and \3.2 million per a couple. It will, reportedly, request users to pay for making a Care Plan. Alongside, the government will transfer the services to the local programs in terms of users of the Elderly-Care Program, if they are certified as those categorized in the Care Grade I and II in the national plan.
January 29, 2025