道しるべ

「台湾有事」にしない方策を 平和と共生の東アジアへ

2022/11/16
  この間、中国は「台湾統一は必ず実現させる」と強気で、米国は「台湾防衛」と牽制し、日本政府は大軍拡に利用する。だが問題は、「有事」を起こさず、東アジアを平和と共生の地域にすることだ。

  中国共産党は党規約に「台湾独立に断固として反対し抑え込む」と明記した。 

  台湾統一を「中華民族の偉大な復興の核心」とする習近平体制による「抑え込む」とは、政治的、国際的な抑え込みと武力による抑え込みの両方を含みうる。 

柔軟路線放棄へ? 

  70年代以降、国際的に「一つの中国。台湾は中国の一部」が公認されたとする同党は「台湾統一」を掲げ、台湾が蒋経国総統の頃には「統一後、台湾は高度な自治権を有し、社会・経済・生活などは変えない」と「一国二制度」も提案。 

  しかし、その後中国はGDP世界2位となり、経済と軍事で米国を急追。「一帯一路」で国際的影響力を強め、香港やウイグルを圧伏、「習近平独裁体制」を確立させ、小さな台湾はいつでも併呑(へいどん)できるとの驕りも伺える。 

  一方の台湾側は、96年に直接選挙で選ばれた国民党の李登輝総統が民主的改革を進め、「台湾は主権国家で『一国二制度』は適用できない」と表明。次いで「自立・主権」を掲げる民進党政権が誕生、「統一」に応じる可能性は遠のいた。 

  台湾は、規模は小さいが半導体などの技術や生産で世界に存在感を示し、何より「台湾人」の自己認識が定着。「一国二制度」の実体も香港で明らかになり、「大陸への統合」に動く気配はない。 

  米中対立の構図に 

  この両岸関係に東・南シナ海の領有権問題や米中の覇権争いが重なり事態は一層複雑化している。米国は近年、経済力が低下し、軍事でも影響力が減退。その覇権に中国は「中華民族の偉大な復興」の論理で挑戦しており、相互に政治・経済・軍事で対抗する構造になっている。 

  こうして台湾は、「統一」か「現状維持」か、「武力行使」か「防衛」かが焦点とされ、日本政府・防衛省はこれを口実に南西諸島の要塞化と攻撃兵器の配備を進めているが、この戦争に勝者はない。 

「台湾有事」はNO 

  各国の戦略では台湾や沖縄の2500万の人びとの生活や願いは顧みられず、東アジアに「平和の島と海」は実現しない。武器を積み上げて崩落を準備するような愚行をやめ、平和と共生の道を行くべきである。 

  どの国も「台湾有事」は起こしてはならない。

英訳版↓

No. 1283 Let’s Build Peaceful Eastern Asia to Live in Harmony

People’s Republic of China has confidently maintained a firm stance for years to ‘reunify Taiwan’. Meanwhile, the United States declares to ‘defend Taiwan’ in a greedy way, and, for Japan, it takes advantage of the situation enthusiastically for its ambition to develop military strength. The vital point, however, is to make the Eastern Asian region peaceful, in which an ‘emergency situation’ should not be created so that people may live in harmony.

TAKE POLICIES TO EVADE EMERGENCY IN TAIWAN AREA

The Communist Party of China (CPC) has specified in its party constitution that ‘the nation steadfastly opposes and contains independence of Taiwan’.

The Xi Jinping administration considers reunification of Taiwan as the ‘key to the great rejuvenation of Chinese nation’: to ‘contain’ means both in a political and international domain and in a military one.

Will China renounce a soft path?

The CPC believes that the policy of ‘one China, and Taiwan is part of China’ has been approved in the international context. It once proposed, in the era under President Jiang Jing-guo in Taiwan, a policy of ‘one country, two systems’, in which the CPC said Taiwan would enjoy high degree of autonomy, keeping its society, economy and livelihood after the reunification’.

Later, however, China has successfully become the second largest country in the world in the GDP, catching up rapidly with the United States economically and militarily. It carries out the Belt and Road Initiative, gaining international influence. It suppresses people in Hong Kong and in the Xinjiang Autonomous Region, making the Xi Jinping system authoritarian. It seems to believe arrogantly that Taiwan, a small island, can be annexed easily anytime.

Meanwhile, in Taiwan a direct presidential election was held in 1996 to set up the government led by President Li Deng-hui, from the Nationalist Party, who involved earnestly in democratic reforms. He expressed that ‘Taiwan is a sovereign state and that it is impossible to pursue the policy of One China, Two Systems. Subsequently, the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) was elected as the government, which raised high up Taiwan’s independence and sovereignty. The ruling party did not show a sign to ‘reunification’.

Taiwan boasts of a top level of technological and productive capacities in the semiconductor industry, though the scale of which is small, in the world. People in Taiwan have self-recognition as Taiwanese extensively. The reality of the One Nation, Two Systems has been clearly witnessed in the recent events in Hong Kong, and no indication can be seen toward ‘unification of motherland’.

A conflicting scheme between US and China

The so-called cross-Strait relationships are mingled with the problems on the territorial conflicts in the East China Sea and the South China Sea as well as the hegemonic dispute between US and China. Thus, the regional context has become more complicated. The US has been declining in its economic control over the areas as well as in the military sphere in recent years. China is now challenging to the falling US supremacy with a logic of ‘the great rejuvenation of Chinese nation’, competing with the former in the political, economic and military fields.

Under the circumstances the Taiwan issue is viewed from the stances of the ‘reunification’ or the ‘status quo’, and the ‘armed intervention’ or ‘defense’. The government of Japan and the Ministry of Defense of Japan, on the pretext of the developments, enhance efforts to build up fortresses in the Southwestern Islands region of the country, deploying offensive weaponry, though a winner can be illusory in the armed conflict.

No! to Taiwan’s Emergency

In the strategies of the relevant governments no attention is paid to lives and hopes of 25 million residents in the regions of Taiwan and Okinawa and no map is seen for ‘peaceful islands and seas’ in East Asia. Acts of stupidity must be ended. No! to accumulation of weapons leading to a collapse. Neighboring countries should take a path to peace and harmony to live together. No country must not invent an emergency in the Taiwan area.



November 16, 2022