Local elections were held in April across the country together with by-elections for the House of Representatives and the House of Councilors. Current political situation is uncertain, as Prime Minister may dissolve the House to have general elections. Meanwhile, the government’s drive toward ‘preparation for a war’ is elaborately concealed, leaving voters unperceived. The administration is piling up accomplished facts.
A CONTENTIOUS POINT – NO! TO WAR PREPARATIONS
The ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) has retreated in the big city areas in the recent local elections and has lost in the by-election in Wakayama Prefecture, the candidate from the Ishin, or the Renovation Party, winning in replacement. Thus, the LDP has won with a slight margin, except for the result in the Fourth Constituency in Yamaguchi Prefecture. As for the Ishin, it has taken67 seats in the Tokyo’s 23 Wards, jumping from 14. Its influence has spread throughout the country. Fresh candidates from the Sansei-to Party and others, whose political direction is unclear, have won seats. The fact reflects an unstable social trend.
The Japanese Communist Party (JCP) has significantly decreased the seats, while a joint bloc of the Social Democratic Party (SDP) and the New Socialist Party has just kept the status quo. That means voters regarded the government’s radical change in the national security policy and its readiness for warfare as something far from the daily realities. Thus, the election was proven to be adverse for the political forces complaining the administration.
Constitutional Democratic Party (CDP) stands on a cliff edge
Usually, a national security policy is not focused upon in the local elections as a contentious issue, as local-level politicians are elected. In addition, the government has successfully approved, without severe debates, the 2023 budget in terms of national security spending, which increased extraordinarily. Only minority groups, the JCP and the SDP, attacked on-head against the government’s ambition for war readiness.
‘A tax increase is not good, but a country needs a certain level of defense capabilities’ – this may be an opinion of the majority of voters. It is because a war, the biggest issue, is not uttered as a point of contention.
Furthermore, it was the Ishin that enjoyed the casting vote. The biggest opposition, the CDP, should nearly be defeated, if it competes with a candidate of the Ishin in the constituency for the House of Representatives. The CDP now stands on an edge of the cliff though it has sought for a way to ally with the Ishin in the parliament.
Will the CDP be dragged to the Ishin? Or will it keep its stance in uniting with other pro-constitution opposition forces? This is a vital question. The CDP favored the ‘bill to bolster defense industries’, which is a ‘bill to prepare for a war’, but it objected to the ‘bill to amend the Immigration Control Act’ and ‘the bill on GX (=green transformation) Electric Power’. It is indispensable to cut off the vicious spiral so as to get back the CDP to the pro-constitution camp.
Let’s raise voices!
If we are hesitant in raising voices to protest the sweeping turn of the government in the national security policy on the ground that ‘the issue does not work to win a vote’, the electorate will lose criterion to decide. This, again, produces a higher barrier for the argument to arise. The retreat of the JCP will make other political parties more cautious, which may produce another vicious circle.
A general election will be held certainly within a period of a year, following dissolution of the Diet. We must build up a political camp that courageously cries out ‘No! to War’ with the Social Democratic Party and the New Socialist Party at the core. We are a minor force, but we can contribute to reconstructing a joint opposition front with enthusiasm, intensifying anti-war movements and linking arms with Okinawan people.
統一自治体選と衆参の補選の結果、解散・総選挙をにらみ政治は錯綜した状況になっている。一方で「戦争準備」の是非は陰に隠され、有権者の審判をあおぐことなく、既成事実化だけが進行する。
自民党は、統一自治体選で大都市部では大きく後退し、衆参の補選では和歌山で維新に敗れ、山口４区を除けば辛勝であった。維新は東京の区議が14議席から67議席へ躍進するなど全国的に伸長し、参政党や政治スタンス不明の新人の当選など、「不穏な世相」が示された。
一方、共産党が大きく議席を減らし、共同した社民党・新社会党もほぼ現状維持だったことに象徴されるが、安保政策の大転換と戦争準備の問題は別世界のように見なされ、これに反対する勢力には逆風が吹いた。
剣が峰に立つ立民
自治体選挙は性格上、安保政策などは争点にしにくいことがある。加えて、防衛費が異次元に増加・踏み込んだ予算にもかかわらず、さしたる議論もなく成立した。戦争準備に真正面から反対するのは、共産と社民などごく少数だった。
「増税は困るが一定の防衛力強化は必要」というのが有権者大多数の意見になるのは、ある意味自然で戦争という最大の問題が争点とならないからである。
しかも、政治のキャスティングボートを維新が握った。立憲民主は、維新に小選挙区で候補を立てられたら危うい。維新との「国会共闘」に傾斜してきた立憲民主は剣が峰に立たされている。
維新に引きずられて行くのか、立憲野党共闘に軸足を置くのか、天国と地獄ほどの差がある。立民は戦争準備の法案である「防衛産業強化法案」に賛成したが、入管法改悪法案とＧＸ電源法案には反対した。立民を野党共闘に引き戻すためには、「負のスパイラル」を断ち切らなければならない。
小なりと言えども
「選挙の票にならないから」と安保政策大転換への反対を十分に訴えられなければ、有権者はますます判断材料を見失い、それがまた争点化しづらい条件となる。共産党の後退は他党をしていっそう警戒させ、「負のスパイラル」に拍車をかけかねない。
しかし、解散・総選挙はこの１年内には確実にある。「戦争させない」と臆することなく訴える勢力を、社民党と新社会党を軸に形成しなくてはならない。小なりと言えども、その熱意は沖縄の人々と連帯する反戦運動を拡げ、立憲野党共闘の再建に寄与することになる。
英訳版↓
No. 1306 Our Struggles Continue
Local elections were held in April across the country together with by-elections for the House of Representatives and the House of Councilors. Current political situation is uncertain, as Prime Minister may dissolve the House to have general elections. Meanwhile, the government’s drive toward ‘preparation for a war’ is elaborately concealed, leaving voters unperceived. The administration is piling up accomplished facts.
A CONTENTIOUS POINT – NO! TO WAR PREPARATIONS
The ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) has retreated in the big city areas in the recent local elections and has lost in the by-election in Wakayama Prefecture, the candidate from the Ishin, or the Renovation Party, winning in replacement. Thus, the LDP has won with a slight margin, except for the result in the Fourth Constituency in Yamaguchi Prefecture. As for the Ishin, it has taken67 seats in the Tokyo’s 23 Wards, jumping from 14. Its influence has spread throughout the country. Fresh candidates from the Sansei-to Party and others, whose political direction is unclear, have won seats. The fact reflects an unstable social trend.
The Japanese Communist Party (JCP) has significantly decreased the seats, while a joint bloc of the Social Democratic Party (SDP) and the New Socialist Party has just kept the status quo. That means voters regarded the government’s radical change in the national security policy and its readiness for warfare as something far from the daily realities. Thus, the election was proven to be adverse for the political forces complaining the administration.
Constitutional Democratic Party (CDP) stands on a cliff edge
Usually, a national security policy is not focused upon in the local elections as a contentious issue, as local-level politicians are elected. In addition, the government has successfully approved, without severe debates, the 2023 budget in terms of national security spending, which increased extraordinarily. Only minority groups, the JCP and the SDP, attacked on-head against the government’s ambition for war readiness.
‘A tax increase is not good, but a country needs a certain level of defense capabilities’ – this may be an opinion of the majority of voters. It is because a war, the biggest issue, is not uttered as a point of contention.
Furthermore, it was the Ishin that enjoyed the casting vote. The biggest opposition, the CDP, should nearly be defeated, if it competes with a candidate of the Ishin in the constituency for the House of Representatives. The CDP now stands on an edge of the cliff though it has sought for a way to ally with the Ishin in the parliament.
Will the CDP be dragged to the Ishin? Or will it keep its stance in uniting with other pro-constitution opposition forces? This is a vital question. The CDP favored the ‘bill to bolster defense industries’, which is a ‘bill to prepare for a war’, but it objected to the ‘bill to amend the Immigration Control Act’ and ‘the bill on GX (=green transformation) Electric Power’. It is indispensable to cut off the vicious spiral so as to get back the CDP to the pro-constitution camp.
Let’s raise voices!
If we are hesitant in raising voices to protest the sweeping turn of the government in the national security policy on the ground that ‘the issue does not work to win a vote’, the electorate will lose criterion to decide. This, again, produces a higher barrier for the argument to arise. The retreat of the JCP will make other political parties more cautious, which may produce another vicious circle.
A general election will be held certainly within a period of a year, following dissolution of the Diet. We must build up a political camp that courageously cries out ‘No! to War’ with the Social Democratic Party and the New Socialist Party at the core. We are a minor force, but we can contribute to reconstructing a joint opposition front with enthusiasm, intensifying anti-war movements and linking arms with Okinawan people.
May 10, 2023