道しるべ

今回はどこへ向かう

2023/12/27
「令和のリクルート事件」

  
自民党「パー券」疑惑は「令和のリクルート事件」とも呼ばれる。内閣崩壊の大疑獄は1988年に発覚、4年間に内閣が4度代わり、非自民連立政権と小選挙区制の発端となった。さて今回は。

   リクルート疑獄と竹下内閣が強行した消費税導入への国民の怒りは、長期政権に安住していた自民党を直撃した。 

小選挙区制の発端 

  派閥解消やクリーンな政治への改革を求める世論の高まりは自民党を分裂に追い込んだが、結末は非自民連立の細川政権による小選挙区制導入(94年)という最悪のものだった。 

  日本社会党は「小選挙区制は憲法改悪への道」と反対を掲げてきたが、「政治改革」のうねりに飲み込まれて細川政権に参加し、執行部は賛成に転じた。 

  小選挙区制は政治改革の旗印のひとつで、「55年体制」から政権交代可能な「二大政党制」へと喧伝された。しかし、短期の民主党政権を除いて自民党中心の政権は続き、とりわけ長期にわたった安倍政権時代に蓄積された驕りと腐敗が露呈したのが、「パー券疑惑」だ。 

  戦争する国が登場 

  さて、二大政党制は安全保障政策の共有が大前提だから日本社会党は解体に追い込まれ、「日米同盟基軸」の民主党が登場した。立憲民主党はその延長。憲法9条堅持の政治勢力は少数となり、「政治改革」から30年で「安保三文書」が出現、戦争する「普通の国」に近づく。 

  内閣不信任案が提出された12月13日に自公が武器輸出解禁の大筋合意をしたのは象徴的だが、内閣危機の最中でも国会議論ぬきで、沖縄では戦争準備が強行されている。 

  しかし、防衛増税の開始時期は3回も先送り。支持率暴落と裏金まみれの政権に増税はできない。武器を用意しても、「国防意識」が滲透しないと張子の虎。78年間戦争をしなかった国を、「普通の国」にするのも、消費税増税も為政者には容易でない。 

24年は激動の年に   

  30年前、自民党を壊した政界再編によって「小選挙区制」が出現した。来春にも想定される解散総選挙しだいで「戦争する国」をめざす「挙国一致」体制の模索が始まりかねない。 

  中国包囲網の構築やイスラエルのジェノサイド支援を二大政党が競う大統領選を前に、米国は世界の危機を増幅する。 

  社民党など戦争反対勢力を総選挙で前進させ、「挙国一致」に巻き込まれない立憲野党の共同を固めることが、いかなる激動にも対応するために必要だ。

英訳版↓
No. 1336 One More Serious Corruption of Today

The current scandal over party tickets sold by the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) is called another Recruit Scandal. The past disgrace overthrew the administration; the illegitimacy was disclosed in 1988 and the Cabinet switched four times during the subsequent four years of time. Finally, the non-LDP coalition government was inaugurated along with the introduction of small-constituency election system. Where will the today’s scandal lead to?

WHERE WILL THE TODAY’S LDP SCANDAL GO?

The Recruit Scandal and the indignation of people caused by the introduction of the consumption tax, which the LDP’s Takeshita administration enforced to approve, severely hit the ruling LDP which had been content with the long seating as governments.

The beginning of small-constituency election system

The rising people’s fury over the conflicting factions inside the LDP and claim on reforms for clean politics had driven the LDP to being split, but the outcome was the worst; the small-constituency election system was employed (1994) by the succeeding Hosokawa government, a non-LDP coalition administration.

The then-Socialist Party of Japan had raised harsh opposition to the election scheme as it would lead to a path to Constitution amendment, but the party joined the Hosokawa administration after being overpowered in the tidal surge for political reforms. Its executive committee threw the traditional stance away to support the new constituency demarcation.

Concerning the small-constituency system, it had been noisily advertised as one of the important political reforms and a way toward the two-big party system under which governments could alternate to be liberated from the so-called 1955 political party framework. Nevertheless, in the following years, with an exception of a short-lived Democratic Party governance, the LDP-led governments have reigned long. Especially, their arrogant and corrupt manners were rampant during the lengthy rule of the Abe administration. This fact is reflected in the today’s scandal.

Japan gets ready for waging a war against others

Originally speaking, the two-big party system is based on sharing the national security policy between the two. Accordingly, the Socialist Party was driven to dissolution, and the Democratic Party, which relies on the US-Japan military alliance, surged as the governing party. The Constitutional Democratic Party (CDP) today is the successor. Political forces to resolutely support Article Nine of the Constitution, which stipulates renunciation of a war, have been reduced to minority. After 30 years of political reforms, Japan has prepared itself to become a normal country that could stage a war against others. Finally, the three documents on national security were approved by the administrative decisions last year.

On December 13, when a nonconfidence bill was presented, the ruling LDP and the Komeito Party agreed on the whole on lifting the bans on weapons’ export. That is quite symbolic. Even in the midst of government’s crisis today, preparations for wars are being made in Okinawa without parliamentary debates.

As for a tax increase to cope with the bigger defense spending, three times of postponement have been made on when to start. The Kishida government has a very low supporting rate now, smeared with dirty money. It cannot decide on a higher tax. Even if weapons are available at hand, that means gloomy unless people’s consciousness is accompanied. It will be hard for the government to make the country an ordinary nation; Japan has never waged a war against others for 78 years. It will be hard, too, for the government to surge the consumption tax rate.

Year 2024 will see big changes

When the LDP government was overthrown thirty years ago through political realignments, simultaneously, the small-constituency election system was brought in. Premier Kishida can order dissolution of the Cabinet and consecutive general election in coming spring; the government could transform this country into a national unity entity to lead a nation to a war against others.

The United States will have a presidential election this year under the two big party system, contesting on laying siege to China and supporting Israel over the genocides: it intensifies crises in the world.

It is crucial, through general elections, to advance anti-war political forces, which include the Social Democratic Party, to reinforce the joint front of constitutional opposition parties without being swallowed up by the ‘national unity’ doctrine, in order to cope with any fierce events.



December 27, 2023