No. 1362 Basic Policy on Economic and Fiscal Management and Reform
The Kishida government approved June 21 in his Cabinet the policy on economic and fiscal management as a third-round version for the fiscal 2024. Every one of the opinion surveys conducted recently shows sluggish people’s support of the government, lingering below 20%. Rates of not-supporting the administration significantly exceed the opposites. An end of the Kishida government is simply estimated.
TODAY’S REALITIES REFLECT 30 YEARS OF GOVERNMENT’S FAULTS
Minimum wage must be \1,500
The Cabinet decided on the Basic Policy on Economic and Fiscal Management and Reform 2024. It largely works to formulate the next fiscal’s budget plans, giving short-and-intermediary-term directions of economy and finance of the nation.
The sub-title of the policy is ‘Realization of Growth-driving Economic Model led by Wage Hikes and Investment Efforts’, presenting a sustainable wage increase plan as its initial step. Contrary to the idea, however, real wages of workers have been falling for two consecutive years. The situation is far from the estimation that recovery in demands could help the economy to grow.
A vital point lies in a hike of the minimum wage, but the policy simply provides a target, without enthusiasm, of \1,500 per hour nationwide as a goal to attain in ten years. A growth-driven economic model is nothing but a daydream.
Potential growth rate is sedentary
The 2024 economic and fiscal guidelines are characterized by reference to the ‘potential economic growth’. The policy says, in a heavily crisis-ridden manner, that ‘the potential growth rate could be weak for long, marking zero percent’, seeing that the population will decrease rapidly in the decade of 2030.
The potential growth rate represents a basis of the nation’s economic capabilities. In Japan it has recorded around 3-4% in the decade of 1980 and 0.6% today. A phase of zero percent growth or minus growth is approaching. The biggest element lies in the structural reductions in the labor force and the volume of working population available that come from the trend of less births of children and longevity of senior citizens.
Immediate steps to alleviate the lowering potential economic growth rate include surging participation of female labor force; by way of distinctively improving working conditions, revising laws to correct the gender-biased wage gaps and converting the status of part-time workers to the one of regular workers to annul the walls of annual incomes. The plan, however, only provides women’s more active performance, remaining totally passive in changing realities. Sincere will of the government is vague.
Government is eager in boosting industries
Meanwhile, the government is keen in enhancing competences of cutting-edge industries, including the semiconductor sector. Rapidus Corporation, established two years ago by the government, will be granted tax money amounting 920 billion yen. The policy further stipulates that necessary legal measures will be taken, asserting the government’s guarantee on repayment of debts financed by private institutions. This is unusual.
But in the policy absent is a review over the weakened Japan’s capabilities in sciences and technologies. Currently almost 60% of professors in the national universities (younger than 40 years of age) are employed as limited-term workers. The government’s reluctance in encouraging basic researches and investing in human resource training has brought consequences of today, that is deterioration of industrial capabilities. This further links with the waning potential growth rate. Put an end to politics of Ruing Bloc!
The economic and fiscal policy 2024 shows the results of ‘lost three decades’ of the country. Our task lies in putting an end to the Kishida government, linking this mission with terminating the politics led by the Liberal Democratic Party and neo-liberalism.
６月21日、岸田内閣で３回目の「骨太の方針」が閣議決定された。その岸田内閣の直近支持率はどの調査も20％前後に低迷。不支持が支持を大きく上回る。岸田内閣の終しゅうえん焉はいよいよ近い。
最賃１５００円を
「経済財政運営の基本指針」が「骨太の方針」の正式な名称。次年度予算編成の大枠を定め、また経済財政施策の短・中期の方向も示す。
今回の副題は「賃上げと投資がけん引する成長型経済の実現」で、持続的な賃上げを出発点に据えている。だが既に２年間も実質賃金のマイナスが続き、需要回復が経済成長を促すには程遠い現状。
肝要なのは最低賃金引き上げだが、骨太方針は10年先の目標に時給１５００円を弱々しく掲げるのみ。全国一律１５００円以上の早期実現なくして、成長型経済など絵に描いた餅でしかない。
潜在成長率の低迷
今年の骨太方針の特徴は、「潜在成長率」への言及。人口減少が２０３０年代に加速する等を挙げ「我が国の潜在成長率は長期にわたりゼロ近傍の低成長に陥りかねない」と強い危機感を記した。
潜在成長率は経済の基礎体力を示す。日本は１９８０年代には３～４％台だったが、今は０・６％ほど。ゼロあるいはマイナス成長の時代が迫っている。この最大の要因が、少子高齢化による労働力人口・労働投入量の構造的減少である。
潜在成長率低下を緩和できる直近の課題は、女性の労働条件を大胆に改善し女性の労働参加を高めること。男女賃金格差の法的是正、パート雇用の正規労働者化、これらによる年収の壁の解消など。だが骨太方針は女性活躍を語るのみで、現実の改革には全く消極的。政府の本気度が問われる。
産業支援には熱心
一方、熱心なのが半導体など先端産業への支援。一昨年に設立した国策会社ラピダスに９２００億円補助するが、骨太方針はさらに、民間融資の負債返済の政府保証＝「必要な法制上の措置を検討する」と異例の明記。
だが骨太方針には日本の科学技術衰退への反省はない。いま日本の国立大教員（40歳未満）の60％近くが有期雇用。基礎的研究と人への投資を怠ってきたツケが、産業力の後退なのだ。さらにこれが潜在成長率の低下に繋がってきた。
自民党政権終焉へ
今年の骨太方針は日本の「失われた30年」を映し出している。私たちの課題は岸田内閣終焉を、自民党政権と新自由主義の終焉に結びつけていくことにある。
英訳版↓
No. 1362 Basic Policy on Economic and Fiscal Management and Reform
The Kishida government approved June 21 in his Cabinet the policy on economic and fiscal management as a third-round version for the fiscal 2024. Every one of the opinion surveys conducted recently shows sluggish people’s support of the government, lingering below 20%. Rates of not-supporting the administration significantly exceed the opposites. An end of the Kishida government is simply estimated.
TODAY’S REALITIES REFLECT 30 YEARS OF GOVERNMENT’S FAULTS
Minimum wage must be \1,500
The Cabinet decided on the Basic Policy on Economic and Fiscal Management and Reform 2024. It largely works to formulate the next fiscal’s budget plans, giving short-and-intermediary-term directions of economy and finance of the nation.
The sub-title of the policy is ‘Realization of Growth-driving Economic Model led by Wage Hikes and Investment Efforts’, presenting a sustainable wage increase plan as its initial step. Contrary to the idea, however, real wages of workers have been falling for two consecutive years. The situation is far from the estimation that recovery in demands could help the economy to grow.
A vital point lies in a hike of the minimum wage, but the policy simply provides a target, without enthusiasm, of \1,500 per hour nationwide as a goal to attain in ten years. A growth-driven economic model is nothing but a daydream.
Potential growth rate is sedentary
The 2024 economic and fiscal guidelines are characterized by reference to the ‘potential economic growth’. The policy says, in a heavily crisis-ridden manner, that ‘the potential growth rate could be weak for long, marking zero percent’, seeing that the population will decrease rapidly in the decade of 2030.
The potential growth rate represents a basis of the nation’s economic capabilities. In Japan it has recorded around 3-4% in the decade of 1980 and 0.6% today. A phase of zero percent growth or minus growth is approaching. The biggest element lies in the structural reductions in the labor force and the volume of working population available that come from the trend of less births of children and longevity of senior citizens.
Immediate steps to alleviate the lowering potential economic growth rate include surging participation of female labor force; by way of distinctively improving working conditions, revising laws to correct the gender-biased wage gaps and converting the status of part-time workers to the one of regular workers to annul the walls of annual incomes. The plan, however, only provides women’s more active performance, remaining totally passive in changing realities. Sincere will of the government is vague.
Government is eager in boosting industries
Meanwhile, the government is keen in enhancing competences of cutting-edge industries, including the semiconductor sector. Rapidus Corporation, established two years ago by the government, will be granted tax money amounting 920 billion yen. The policy further stipulates that necessary legal measures will be taken, asserting the government’s guarantee on repayment of debts financed by private institutions. This is unusual.
But in the policy absent is a review over the weakened Japan’s capabilities in sciences and technologies. Currently almost 60% of professors in the national universities (younger than 40 years of age) are employed as limited-term workers. The government’s reluctance in encouraging basic researches and investing in human resource training has brought consequences of today, that is deterioration of industrial capabilities. This further links with the waning potential growth rate.
Put an end to politics of Ruing Bloc!
The economic and fiscal policy 2024 shows the results of ‘lost three decades’ of the country. Our task lies in putting an end to the Kishida government, linking this mission with terminating the politics led by the Liberal Democratic Party and neo-liberalism.
July 10, 2024